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Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%–24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%–0.2% annual probability). We simulated various “what-if” scenarios and found managed retreat to be the only intervention with predicted exposure below baseline conditions. In the business-as-usual scenario, existing and future development must be either protected or abandoned to cope with future flooding. Our open framework can be applied to different regions and advances local to regional-scale efforts to evaluate potential risks and tradeoffs.

 

Abstract Models that are both spatially and temporally dynamic are needed to forecast where and when non-native pests and pathogens are likely to spread, to provide advance information for natural resource managers. The potential US range of the invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF, Lycorma delicatula ) has been modeled, but until now, when it could reach the West Coast’s multi-billion-dollar fruit industry has been unknown. We used process-based modeling to forecast the spread of SLF assuming no treatments to control populations occur. We found that SLF has a low probability of first reaching the grape-producing counties of California by 2027 and a high probability by 2033. Our study demonstrates the importance of spatio-temporal modeling for predicting the spread of invasive species to serve as an early alert for growers and other decision makers to prepare for impending risks of SLF invasion. It also provides a baseline for comparing future control options. 

Participatory research methods are increasingly used to collectively understand complex social-environmental problems and to design solutions through diverse and inclusive stakeholder engagement. But participatory research rarely engages stakeholders to co-develop and co-interpret models that conceptualize and quantify system dynamics for comparing scenarios of alternate action. Even fewer participatory projects have engaged people using geospatial simulations of dynamic landscape processes and spatially explicit planning scenarios. We contend that geospatial participatory modeling (GPM) can confer multiple benefits over non-spatial approaches for participatory research processes, by (a) personalizing connections to problems and their solutions through visualizations of place, (b) resolving abstract notions of landscape connectivity, and (c) clarifying the spatial scales of drivers, data, and decision-making authority. We illustrate through a case study how GPM is bringing stakeholders together to balance population growth and conservation in a coastal region facing dramatic landscape change due to urbanization and sea level rise. We find that an adaptive, iterative process of model development, sharing, and revision drive innovation of methods and ultimately improve the realism of land change models. This co-production of knowledge enables all participants to fully understand problems, evaluate the acceptability of trade-offs, and build buy-in for management actions in the places where they live and work. 

Managing oxidative stress is an important physiological function for all aerobic organisms, particularly during periods of prolonged high metabolic activity, such as long‐distance migration across ecological barriers. However, no previous study has investigated the oxidative status of birds at different stages of migration and whether that oxidative status depends on the condition of the birds. In this study, we compared (1) energy stores and circulating oxidative status measures in (a) two species of Neotropical migrants with differing migration strategies that were sampled at an autumn stopover site before an ecological barrier; and (b) a species of trans‐Saharan migrant sampled at a spring stopover site after crossing an ecological barrier; and (2) circulating oxidative measures and indicators of fat metabolism in a trans‐Saharan migrant after stopovers of varying duration (0–8 nights), based on recapture records. We found fat stores to be positively correlated with circulating antioxidant capacity in Blackpoll Warblers and Red‐eyed Vireos preparing for fall migration on Block Island,USA, but uncorrelated in Garden Warblers on the island of Ponza, Italy, after a spring crossing of the Sahara Desert and Mediterranean Sea. In all circumstances, fat stores were positively correlated with circulating lipid oxidation levels. Among Garden Warblers on the island of Ponza, fat anabolism increased with stopover duration while oxidative damage levels decreased. Our study provides evidence that birds build antioxidant capacity as they build fat stores at stopover sites before long flights, but does not support the idea that antioxidant stores remain elevated in birds with high fuel levels after an ecological barrier. Our results further suggest that lipid oxidation may be an inescapable hazard of using fats as the primary fuel for flight. Yet, we also show that birds on stopover are capable of recovering from the oxidative damage they have accrued during migration, as lipid oxidation levels decrease with time on stopover. Thus, the physiological strategy of migrating songbirds may be to build prophylactic antioxidant capacity in concert with fuel stores at stopover sites before a long‐distance flight, and then repair oxidative damage while refueling at stopover sites after long‐distance flight.